BURFORD

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  • I certainly wasn't implying that frauds don't happen in the US or that they aren't even some of the biggest frauds. Rather that the US regulators do seem to take stronger action once frauds are uncovered (and maybe are more proactive in working to uncover them in the first place). And then the courts there hand out meaningful punishments to directors rather than a slap on the wrist and a fine to the company.

    Of course, fraudsters commit fraud thinking that they're not going to get caught but, hopefully, the prospect of a long prison sentence in a not very pleasant environment is an additional safety measure for shareholders/debt holders of a company with a listing in NY rather than just a listing in London.

    Should they decide on a OTC listing only then all bets are off. That would be a big red flag for me.
  • edited July 2020
    No, of course not Laughton, pls don't feel that I was jumping to any conclusions from what you said earlier

    I still think European approach is better than US approach. Taking strong action, being proactive in catching and meaningful punishments are all examples of emotional and financial pressure which decreases performance all around.

    And in terms of long prison sentences, well its again a mistaken US approach of emotional and financial pressure that doesn't work in unexpected ways as John here explains -

  • For those still interested -

    RNS this morning........." it is anticipated that trading on the NYSE will commence on Monday 19 October."

    Hard to imagine they would have gone to all this trouble to then announce sub-optimal interims on Thursday. Although I expect Muddy Waters to continue stirring the pot.
  • Laughton,
    Thanks for update, much appreciated
    Still have a few in BUR1 & BUR2 which I'm likely to hold to maturity, unless the yield reduces to a tempting figure, dependent on the perceived risk!
  • I have BUR2 and 3 and also aiming to hold to maturity. The ords have had a real roller coaster so some stability maybe with the listing. If only I bought at sub 300p. Can see price being very volatile leading up to listing though.
  • Muddy Water should continue to keep an eye on the situation, BUR definitely needs to continue to improve >>

    Buying at sub 300p was more risky compared to other businesses available for cheap at the time, Mid-March!

    https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research

  • Trading Update issued at midday today.

    https://www.burfordcapital.com/media/2018/20210217-burford-capital-2020-business-update.pdf

    All "sounds" very reassuring and they rejoin the shares rejoin the dividend list so happy to continue holding BUR2 for the duration. They seem to be up a bit more - almost at PAR now.
  • Thanks Laugthton, looks quite promising after reading this. Caution however where are Muddy Waters ? Didn't hear anything more from them for a while. May be just an acceptance that Burford are Ok and if so will Burford sue M.W. given their expertise !?
  • Yes a good read ! It would be nice to see them rise to the 106 region they were prior to MW and Covid; however I'll be happy for them to just keep paying out as I own BUR 1,2,and 3
  • There seems to be a fairly large discrepancy between the Burford Bonds at the moment. BUR1 is quoted 6.18-5.56 and BUR2 is 6.22-5.81. However, BUR3 is quoted at 5.6-5.28. I appreciate that if you think the bonds are too cheap in general then you will get a better total return in the longer duration bond if yields fall, but if you're just looking at relative value then the shorter bonds have more value. In particular, if you are happy owning the 2026's at around 5.5% yield then you should happier to own the 24's at around 6%. And to be able to switch two years shorter and pick up 20bps in yield, even with the grossly inflated bid-offers at the moment, seems too good to miss.
  • All will be revealed (or not) on Wednesday afternoon (London time): -

    To gain dedicated access investors and analysts are encouraged to pre-register for the earnings call via:

    https://www.investis-live.com/burfordcapital/6005ae659a138810004477f3/mfnd.
  • I see Burford have announced a Private Offering of $350mn senior notes with a 2028 maturity. No details of pricing as yet. Assuming this goes ok then imho this should support the shorter dated bonds, as they are more likely to be redeemed. There might be some pressure on the longer dated bonds...
  • I'm guessing with BUR1 it's something do with the coupon and capital losses Hobgoblin. Not everyone has the luxury of making all purchases with ISA's or SIPP's or other tax wrappers.

    So, for example with BUR1 the coupon is a nice 6.5% but as this is a retail bond there will be no way to offset the capital loss if it's not in a tax wrapper so the return in this case after tax will be lower than it would otherwise have been

    I do not understand why BUR2 is paying a higher return than BUR3 but it's been this way for some months, but I do note the coupon is 1.125% higher with BUR2.

    All I can say is I took advantage some months ago and three quarters of my holding is BUR2 and the rest BUR3. I'd happyily buy some more BUR1 but I've got
    enough
  • Good news today from Burford in that they feel able to issue an increased size of their 2028 Dollar offering at a relatively reasonable price. They have also explicitly stated that they "plan to use the incremental $50 million of proceeds to retire existing debt" so expect BUR1 and BUR2 to stay well bid. At some point in the near future I would expect them to launch a tender offer to buy some of these back.
  • Burford Capital Limited announces tender offer for Burford Capital PLC’s £90,000,000 6.50 per cent. Guaranteed Bonds due 2022 by Burford Capital Holdings (UK) Limited

    https://www.burfordcapital.com/media-room/media-room-container/burford-capital-limited-announces-tender-offer-for-burford-capital-plc-s-90-000-000-650-per-cent/
  • I'd be interested to hear whether people intend to tender their BUR1 holdings and, if so, at what level. I'm in two minds about it. While I'm happy to see the capital appreciation on the bond, I'm also pretty confident that the company won't go bust before Aug 22. Given that there's very little else yielding much at all in the market, it doesn't really make sense to let them go with a yield above 3%. I might offer them at the 104 level (2.9% for 28 June settlement) and be happy to continue holding them if I miss out.
  • I'm gonna hold these as I bought them when they had dipped to mid 80s, but moreover, there is nothing interesting I can replace them with, so happy to hold onto the yield locked in.

  • I'll be following suit AJR
  • Just wondering whether to offer at the top of the range and then, if accepted, purchase some of the 2024s and at least maintain a bit of 6.125% for another two years. Currently I can purchase the 24s at 105.48 (just above the 105 maximum). 6.5% for 2 years given up for 6.125% for 4 years. Still undecided though!.

  • Yup - bought in lower 80s and no ideas at present as to where to put proceeds so at moment will be happy to join the do nothing club

    Woz
  • Eqi sent me the tender offer on 2nd June with a closing date for my response on 14th June.

    However, AJBell have yet to contact me on this offer ! I have messaged them and have received a reply that my enquiry has been forwarded to the 'appropriate department'. Has anyone else had any luck with AJBell ?
  • AJ Bell sent an email out today re the Tender
    I'm willing to accept a price of 104.25 (thus losing a of Yield 2.86%)
    This would give therefore provide a capital gain on sale / tender of 4.25%
    I have no great requirement to sell, therefore asking a reasonable premium (current price around 103.70)
  • Redemption is in 2022, which is only round the corner, so why this now?

    I may take the tender just to reduce my "stamp collection" of bonds.
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