Burford

sussexmade

Only just seen the price slide today on the ords of some 22% at one time and 2 upto 4 % on the retail bonds. All sorts of rumours /spec trading on ords so bonds caught up in it all.
No statement from the board so could be a screw on Woodford or just overblown normal AIM market jitters.
Not sure if i am worried or not being a bond holder but certainly would ( Woodford !? ) be if as an ord holder.

Anyone know anything for certain? Hardman put out a really bullish statement a day or so ago and one or two brokers very positive buy recos in last few days.

sussexmade

AMENDMENT- whoops i didn't edit check my post earlier. Should have read bonds down some 12 to 14%.

Laughton

Muddy Waters say they're going to release a damning report on a company at 8.00am tomorrow London time.
Consensus seems to be that it might be Burford on the receiving end.

If so, I hope they've got some good lawyers - because Burford certainly have and I would think that Burford couldn't really sit back and simply say it's all a load of rubbish. Reputation must be a big part of their attraction to potential "clients".

arjungaur

haha, they provide litigation finance don't they, hey, it's time to self-finance their own litigation for a change, show their potential 'clients' who is the bauss

jokes aside, they should take some time to reflect on root cause as to why and how muddy water have reached the conclusion in their report, don't rush to judgement, it's okay to take some time and come up with level headed mature course of action and changes that might be required in their business

given the uncertainty and the fact that nobody likes it, it's no surprise that stocks and bonds are going to have tough time

@sussexmade which site are you reading these rumours, bullish statement, buy recos on

@Laughton which site are you reading these muddy water release, consensus on

Laughton

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/mw-is-short/

and worth watching:- https://twitter.com/muddywatersre (currently second video down)

PADDY

The Share Price seems to have stabilized for now. I guess the bottom line is, as always, if the company was wound down, how much is left to cover the creditors.

sussexmade

Thanks Laughton for link, i did find the source eventually last night and indeed was Muddywaters. I don't know much about them but see this morning that Burford have put out a statement and said they will take legal action if necessary ( after the horse has bolted ).
Anyway bond prices crashed this morning ( especially 2026 ) along with ords. Good time to buy or not, let's see but i am really quite worried that this could domino some more yet.
Arjungaur- just Google Hardman & co you will the report and H.L. website contained the info on brokers buy reco.
Have a good day all.

hind

Yes exactly Paddy
https://www.burfordcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BUR-32541-Interim-Report-2019-WEB.pdf

Laughton

Also worth having a look here for some analysis of the situation.

https://cube.investments/cube-midcap-report-7-aug-2019-bur/

Currently being updated. You might have to register but it's free and this report is available to freeloaders (like me) whereas some of their content is only avaiable to subscribers,

PADDY

@Laughton , thanks this is useful. The share price is taking more legs down. But there is some comfort for the Bond holders in the above analysis.

Fang

Reading the MuddyWaters report in detail, would seem that Burford is reminiscent of Enron, added to which the CFO is the wife of the CEO (and previous CFOs always departed after a short spell). Once again, Woodford one of the bigger shareholders.. what a reverse indicator he has become. Soon off, I would think , to a very well funded retirement thanks to all these investors big and small, who bought the hype. Was forever thus, not much of a learning curve, unfortunately.

PADDY

The conclusion of the link from @Laughton https://cube.investments/cube-midcap-report-7-aug-2019-bur/ , does suggest that there is likely enough money to wind up the business and pay the bondholders, which is the primary concern. The Bonds have recovered somewhat.

hind

Bonds recovered somewhat bar the $ one from quotes I got

PADDY

This one has a while to play out yet, I think Muddy Water are guessing that there is more dirt that they haven't found and are hoping to smoke out the directors. If MW are wrong, then happy days, but it will take a while to play out ( not as long as EROS!)

sussexmade

Thanks all for the above, interesting reading. The USD bonds will be highly speculative given the U.S. herd mentallity so yes the GBP bonds may be worth a punt. Think i will have a little nibble though the widened spread has to be overcome.

PADDY

I am a holder, but I will sit on my hands. I don't mind if the business if wound down as long as the Bondholders are paid in full. Clearly Muddy Waters had discredited the business to some degree and that will have an impact going forward looking for fresh funds.

hind

Same here Paddy, at my 5% limit so cant add.

frugal

Here is the muddy water report - interesting read if you have an interest in the company

http://d.muddywatersresearch.com/content/uploads/2019/08/MW_BUR_08072019.pdf

hind

Bit more bond recovery today. The $ one has rose the most from 61 offer yesterday and now back in line with the others. Sussexmade why do you think the $ bond is more speculative bar the fx risk

sussexmade

Hind, yes good to see the recovery this morning of between 5 upto 12% on the 4 bonds and USD one playing catch up whilst the ords haven't done so well at still under 600p.
My comment was really to say that the USD issue was marked down more relentlessly than the GBP's as the USA traders nearly always over react and there is a bigger speculative herd mentality and todays USD bond recovery vs GBP recovery is also typical of that but probably quite deserved as it was out of synch.
Interestingly most Gilts and bonds all down today except Burford.!

shotgun

Tried to buy some yesterday with Selftrade. They could not provide a quote (all too common lately) & my fill or kill attempts were not fulfilled.

PADDY

Burford has issused a couple RNS, a rebuttal, and director purchases, there has been a conference call as well. The share price has jumped, panic over for now!

shotgun

Good news. I have an unhealthy position in these.

shotgun

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190808005571/en/

hind

For us bondholders not so good if they buyback shares but on the other side of the coin now they know they are being watched closely on accounts

PADDY

@hind Not sure what you mean, director purchases is out of their own pocket, I haven't seen any buyback announcement. @shotgun anyone following EROS will be familiar with those type of announcements, it didn't seem to bring down EROS, so BUR should be ok.

hind

"The board is ... considering the company buying back its own shares, given the potential investment return the shares represent at their current price," it said in a statement.

PADDY

@hind, thanks, if they have any sense they won't. The company needs to restore confidence in it's management, and it's liquidity. good for the directors to buy shares not for the company. This MW attack has raised the cost of new funds for then,

hind

Yes my thoughts exactly, with 8% cost of bond capital , better to monitise some more of the case awards a bit earlier

shotgun

https://twitter.com/DoTheMaths1/status/1159425216365436929

PADDY

Not sure why the Bonds have sold off this morning, given the relatively positive news flow, also RNS from BUR indicating that they are potentially going after MW and market shorters acting in cahoots with MW.