Exiting the EU- But will it happen?

It is interesting to note that most of the equity / bond falls over the past 2 days suggests that the final decision to leave the EU has been taken. However to implement "Article 50" will require "Houses of Parliament" approval, in the same way when the UK joined the EU.
With the "Labour Opposition" in complete disarray, there is little doubt that the Conservatives will seek an early election this autumn. The newly elected MPs (including any Labour MPs (if any!) may think differently to that of the General Public on June 23rd 2016.
The purpose of electing MPs is for them to make difficult decisions to ensure our future "economic growth".

Only when Article 50 has been complied with, will there be no looking back!

Expect a possible rally in the Autumn!

Any other views on this important issue?

Comments

  • Elephant in the room are Gilts at present impervious to fall, absurdly overpriced, in view of falling Pound and rising import prices.
  • People have been sold a lie and I would not be surprised if there is a second referendum to get us back to where we were once politicians admit they lied to people about having £350m/week for the NHS, access to single market without freedom of movement, etc.
    Markets are very relaxed about this for now for the simple reason it is very unlikely the UK will leave the EU in the terms promised by the Leave (Lie) campaign.

    What worries me far more however is the massive increase in racist and xenophobic incidents around England; this is what happens when prejudice is the central tenet of a political campaign, the racist scum feels empowered and it will be open season on foreigners for a while until the decent majority face off the scumbags. They murdered an MP and Farage cracks a joke about it.

    Very sad of state of affairs that we have gone from Cool Britannia to Little England.
    And better not to mention Northern Ireland or Scotland...how can we now take them out of the EU against the wish of their population? Was it not the case 2 years ago that England and Scotland were " a partnership of equals", and the UK was a "family of nations"? Yes, another lie.


    From an investment point of view, and assuming we don't leave the single market, there were plenty of opportunities available on Tuesday and I topped up on some holdings and added new positions in some bombed out equities, particularly those with US earnings. Yields will stay lower for longer for the foreseable future, but sadly spreads have widened and liquidity is poor.
  • Trenator, thank you for your comments, much appreciated
    Another major consideration is that the EU could fall apart without the United Kingdom.
    The results had major impact on Spain / Italy (bonds & Equities), eg Spain's IBEX 8800 to 8100, which hasn't yet recovered, unlike the FT100 (now above). The UK shouldn't just think of ourselves, but of Europe in total, we don't want another war like 100 years ago
    Good that you think Yields will stay lower for longer, which would help my mainly "Fixed income" portfolios (SIPP/ISA).
    On the basis of the number of racist incidents, I doubt there be a 2nd Referendum.
    However Article 50 is unlikely to be implemented as all political parties will attempt to ensure that "Little England" is not let adrift into the rough waters of the Atlantic, away from the shores of the EU.
    Common sense I hope will prevail.

  • cards on table i write as one of the 'stupid' people. Bond prices (this is after all a bond forum) reflect risk to their holder, the price of gilts have rocketed, the price of corp bonds have nudged up a bit but nothing outrageous. My take is in the 2 to 3 year horizon nothing much will change, perhaps a mild recession, good for good quality bonds, thereafter our economy will be liberated to do what Great Britain has always done well, namely trade with the world (including Europe). In case there is any doubt although 'stupid', I didn't believe the lies for a second, just made my own mind up and sleep well at night knowing this is the best country in the world...night night.
  • I believe that we will definitely implement article 50. I'm not sure how soon though.

    Theresa May quote
    “Brexit means Brexit,” she said. “The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict.”
    Ms May said she would establish a Department for Brexit and a team of negotiators before triggering Article 50
  • John & Shotgun, thank you for your comments
    Still very early days regarding Brexit, with many newspapers showing some of the earlier disadvantages that comes with exiting the EU, the latest being Standard Life stopping withdrawals from it's property fund.
    I notice that the leading supporters of Brexit are "wilting away" (Boris Johnson & Nigel Farage), perhaps grass-root supporters may be reconsidering their standing when it starts having a personal effect (eg less foreign currency for their summer hols!)
    John, nobody is stupid, just that the issue of the EU is very complicated, with the vast majority of us (including me), not knowing the real "advantages" and "disadvantages" of exiting the EU. Our "Members of Parliament" should have the final say, only after reading professional reports prepared by unbiased authors!
    Pulling the "trigger", like on a handgun, could cause disastrous results!
  • On a more positive note for this forum, overall bond (ORB) values have started to go back to the pre-referendum vote, with the opportunity further rises due to impending decrease of the BOE base rate!
    The only good piece of news,
    and with interest rates likely to stay lower for longer!
  • The potential piece of seriously good news, is the suggestion of significantly lower business rates in the UK. This is something they should have tried long ago, since a lower business rate is likely to get the economy moving and normally leads to more revenue for the exchequer, not less!
  • When the dust settles on the recent property fund exits, there surely will exist a buying opportunity, with the moves being completely over done.
  • Shotgun, agree with both lower "business rates" & "property fund exits"
    Lower "Corporation Tax" rates have been & will continue to encourage UK investment
    Putting a "dampener" on the "business property market" may not be a bad thing at this stage to ensure we don't suffer from another "bust to boom" period.
    A happy investor of fixed income securities!
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